Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 6.849643 8.114889 9.511664 11.162933 13.056367 15.154086 17.648312
2025-02-09 5.189210 6.874859 8.914270 11.541911 14.813934 18.728734 23.738776
2025-02-16 3.974758 5.797896 8.181795 11.479856 15.869440 21.449914 29.009606
2025-02-23 3.044275 4.845805 7.370982 11.089252 16.329181 23.340149 33.296184
2025-03-02 2.355302 4.067433 6.625970 10.611788 16.521125 24.788979 37.016683
2025-03-09 1.954038 3.629328 6.278358 10.612025 17.321736 27.069500 41.981944
2025-03-16 1.649966 3.281766 6.001268 10.654112 18.145747 29.401379 47.143101
2025-03-23 1.395444 2.965730 5.717787 10.629796 18.832786 31.544925 52.137194
2025-03-30 1.127924 2.570195 5.233704 10.198445 18.801785 32.554719 55.445595
2025-04-06 0.967586 2.347707 5.018125 10.189307 19.443014 34.636086 60.516404
2025-04-13 0.826227 2.134265 4.784432 10.110856 19.942366 36.501552 65.335606
2025-04-20 0.771591 2.097058 4.883788 10.652810 21.564418 40.313268 73.522062
2025-04-27 0.707368 2.029427 4.919717 11.090943 23.062277 44.058730 81.903666
2025-05-04 0.655427 1.981045 4.989221 11.602553 24.739268 48.224290 91.244593
2025-05-11 0.568727 1.826814 4.807465 11.582931 25.408360 50.662267 97.767760
2025-05-18 0.471118 1.619728 4.473724 11.202436 25.337529 51.760440 102.007442
2025-05-25 0.384145 1.418300 4.117872 10.724757 25.018874 52.366656 105.385196
2025-06-01 0.335802 1.317090 3.986847 10.726264 25.664178 54.789780 112.144687
2025-06-08 0.295870 1.231276 3.880324 10.769145 26.393856 57.408718 119.389114
2025-06-15 0.258417 1.142995 3.752475 10.744729 26.973401 59.765184 126.256966
2025-06-22 0.211493 1.006904 3.470486 10.309377 26.615550 60.252173 129.614238
2025-06-29 0.185306 0.938112 3.365271 10.300166 27.199402 62.643178 136.721348
2025-07-06 0.160559 0.866604 3.239245 10.220981 27.614151 64.709431 143.292265